On Thanksgiving night, Baltimore Ravens fans will pack M&T Bank Stadium with one goal: watch Lamar Jackson extend their five-game winning streak to six — and maybe seal the AFC North. Opposite them, a reeling but resurgent Cincinnati Bengals team returns its heartbeat: Joe Burrow, back from a two-month absence, ready to prove he’s still the man who owns this rivalry. The stage? Baltimore, Maryland. The time? 8:20 p.m. ET on November 27, 2025. And the stakes? Everything.
Home Field, High Stakes
The Ravens, at 7-5, are riding the most dangerous wave in the AFC: momentum. They’ve won five straight, all by double digits, powered by Jackson’s surgical precision and the bruising presence of Derrick Henry, who ran for two touchdowns last week against the Browns. Their offense isn’t flashy — it’s functional, relentless. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them a 68% chance to win, projecting a 7.2-point margin. That’s not luck. That’s dominance.
But here’s the twist: the Bengals aren’t just showing up. They’re showing up with purpose. Burrow, who missed six games after a shoulder injury, returns with a 104.8 passer rating in his nine career matchups against Baltimore — the best of any QB in the division against them. He’s not just healthy. He’s hot. And his chemistry with Ja’Marr Chase? It’s the kind of connection that turns close games into classics.
The Betting Landscape: Odds, Lines, and Contrarian Bets
The point spread? Ravens -7.5 on PrizePicks, -7 on DraftKings. The moneyline? Ravens -375, Bengals +300. On paper, it’s a blowout waiting to happen. But the numbers tell a different story.
Five straight meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Since last season, the Ravens have gone over the total in 20 of 28 games — the highest rate in the NFL. That’s not coincidence. It’s culture. Both teams play with pace. Both quarterbacks trust their arms. And when Burrow’s back, the Bengals don’t just survive — they score.
Analysts are split. Sports Betting Dime sees a 11-point Ravens win. VSIN’s analysts are whispering something else: “Cincinnati feels like the right side.” One even recommended betting +7.5 on the Bengals with 1.5 units — a bold move, but not insane. After all, Baltimore’s last two wins came by three and four points. They’ve looked sluggish. They’ve turned the ball over. They’ve let opponents hang around.
And then there’s the under. Action Network’s top pick? Under 52.5. Why? Because when the Ravens are ahead, they kill the clock. When the Bengals are behind, they abandon the run. This game could be a 28-24 slugfest — not 38-31.
Player Props: The Real Battle Lines
Betting on the winner is one thing. Betting on the players who make it happen? That’s where the real money is.
- Joe Burrow over 36.5 pass attempts — -113. He’s thrown 37+ in four of his last five games against Baltimore. He’ll need every one.
- Isaiah Likely anytime TD — the Ravens’ tight end has three scores in his last four games. Jackson loves targeting him in the red zone.
- Chase Brown over 14 rush attempts — the Bengals’ running back has been quietly effective. With Burrow back, the run game gets more breathing room.
- Ja’Marr Chase over 8.5 receptions — he’s caught 10+ in three of his last four games against Baltimore. He’s not just a weapon. He’s a nightmare.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Box Score
This isn’t just about playoff seeding. It’s about identity. The Ravens are trying to become the AFC’s new power. The Bengals? They’re trying to remember who they are.
Burrow’s return is more than a roster move — it’s a psychological reset. The Bengals are 4-7 against the spread this season, second-worst in the league. But they’ve gone over the total in seven of 11 games. That tells you something: they don’t lose cleanly. They fight. Even when they’re down, they make you earn it.
And let’s not forget history. This is the 60th meeting between these teams. The Ravens lead 32-27. But in the last five, the Bengals have won three — including a 34-20 upset in 2023 that sent shockwaves through the division.
For Cincinnati, this is their second-ever Thanksgiving game. Their first? A 26-10 loss to the Jets in 2010 — a game featuring Hall of Famers Terrell Owens and LaDainian Tomlinson. Now? Burrow gets his shot. And he’s not here to make history. He’s here to rewrite it.
What’s Next?
If the Ravens win, they’ll be one game up on the Steelers with four to play. The division is theirs to lose.
If the Bengals win? Suddenly, the AFC North is a three-team race again. Burrow’s confidence will ripple through the locker room. The Bengals will be dangerous in January. And the Ravens? They’ll have to answer questions about complacency.
Either way, this isn’t just another Thursday night game. It’s a turning point.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Joe Burrow’s return change the Bengals’ chances?
Burrow’s return transforms the Bengals from a team relying on backup QBs into a legitimate offensive threat. In his nine career games against Baltimore, he’s posted a 104.8 passer rating — the highest of any QB in the rivalry. His presence elevates Ja’Marr Chase, opens the run game, and forces defenses to respect play-action. Without him, the Bengals averaged 16.3 points per game. With him, they’ve averaged 28.4.
Why are so many analysts picking the under despite the high-scoring history?
While five straight meetings have gone over, the Ravens’ recent wins have been grind-it-out affairs. They’ve led in the fourth quarter in all five wins, and their offense has slowed to manage the clock. Derrick Henry’s presence alone reduces possessions. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ offense tends to stall when trailing — they’ve scored fewer than 20 points in four of their last five losses. The under is a bet on control, not chaos.
Is the Ravens’ -7.5 spread too high?
It’s close. The Ravens are 5-0 SU but only 3-2 ATS in their last five. Their wins have come by margins of 3, 4, 10, 14, and 17 points — meaning they’ve covered just twice. Burrow’s return, combined with Baltimore’s recent defensive lapses, makes this line feel inflated. The Bengals have covered in three of their last four road games, and they’ve lost by seven or fewer in six of their last eight.
What’s the biggest risk for the Ravens?
Complacency. After five straight wins, there’s a danger of looking past the Bengals — especially on a holiday week. The Ravens’ offensive line has been inconsistent, and Jackson has thrown three interceptions in his last two games. If Burrow gets early momentum, the crowd noise fades, and the Ravens start pressing, this game could turn ugly fast.
How does this game impact playoff seeding?
A Ravens win puts them at 8-5, one game ahead of the Steelers and Bengals in the AFC North. A Bengals win ties them at 6-6 and creates a three-way tie for first. With tiebreakers favoring Baltimore, the Bengals would need to win out and get help to overtake them. But one win changes everything — especially if Burrow plays like a MVP candidate.
Has a Bengals QB ever had a big game on Thanksgiving?
Never. In their only previous Thanksgiving game in 2010, Carson Palmer threw two interceptions and was sacked four times. Burrow is the first Bengals QB since then to enter the game with a winning record against Baltimore — and the first with elite health and chemistry. This isn’t just a chance. It’s a legacy moment.
